Player breakdown
Tua Tagovailoa
Alabama · 2020 Draft Class
6-0217 lbs1st round, 5th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
EliteAll-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIA | 10 | 9 | 186 | 290 | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 109 | 3 | 14 |
| 2021 | MIA | 13 | 12 | 263 | 388 | 2,653 | 16 | 10 | 128 | 3 | 19 |
| 2022 | MIA | 13 | 13 | 259 | 400 | 3,548 | 25 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 25 |
| 2023 | MIA | 17 | 17 | 388 | 560 | 4,624 | 29 | 14 | 74 | 0 | 29 |
| 2024 | MIA | 11 | 11 | 291 | 399 | 2,867 | 19 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 19 |
| 2025 | MIA | 14 | 14 | 260 | 384 | 2,660 | 20 | 15 | 43 | 0 | 20 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Alabama | SEC | 5 | 35 | 53 | 470 | 8 | 1 | 106 | 2 | 10 |
| 2018 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 199 | 294 | 3,353 | 37 | 4 | 190 | 5 | 42 |
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 8 | 180 | 252 | 2,840 | 33 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 35 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
63%
ML model output
Context Prob
63%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1185 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.278
6,663 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+6.1) — getting better faster each year-0.397
256.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343