Player breakdown
Tyler Shough
Louisville · 2025 Draft Class
6-5219 lbs2nd round, 40th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~26
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
39%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NOR | 11 | 9 | 221 | 327 | 2,384 | 10 | 6 | 186 | 3 | 13 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Oregon | Big Ten | 2 | 12 | 15 | 144 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3 |
| 2020 | Oregon | Big Ten | 6 | 106 | 167 | 1,559 | 13 | 6 | 271 | 2 | 15 |
| 2021 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 4 | 64 | 92 | 872 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 8 |
| 2022 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 0 | 82 | 138 | 1,062 | 6 | 3 | 158 | 2 | 8 |
| 2023 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 4 | 67 | 111 | 746 | 7 | 4 | 149 | 2 | 9 |
| 2024 | Louisville | ACC | 12 | 244 | 389 | 3,195 | 23 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
39%
ML model output
Context Prob
39%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.375
3,195 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+21.2) — getting better faster each year-0.397
266.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.339
Height-adjusted speed: 4.33s — elite speed for frame-0.309