Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Vince Young
Vince Young

Player breakdown

Vince Young

Texas · 2006 Draft Class

6-5229 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
EliteDavey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

78%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006TEN15131843572,1991213552719
2007TEN15152383822,546917395312
2008TEN312236219122701
2009TEN12101522591,879107281212
2010TEN98931561,255103125010
2011PHI6366114866497904
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003TexasSEC12891401,125711,0691118
2004TexasSEC101322221,66911108871021
2005TexasSEC111822852,7692610850935

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

28%

ML model output

Context Prob

28%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 1.00 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
5,563 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Composite college score: 24 — elite multi-metric profile+0.192

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+1.5) — getting better faster each year-0.397
168.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)