Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Will Grier
Will Grier

Player breakdown

Will Grier

West Virginia · 2019 Draft Class

6-2217 lbs3rd round, 100th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~31
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

47%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019CAR222852228042200
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015FloridaSEC01061611,204103116212
2017West VirginiaBig 12102503883,4903412122236
2018West VirginiaBig 12112663973,8643780037

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

47%

ML model output

Context Prob

47%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1330 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.331
4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
7,354 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+2.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
350.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)