Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Zach Mettenberger
Zach Mettenberger

Player breakdown

Zach Mettenberger

LSU · 2014 Draft Class

6-5224 lbs6th round, 178th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

30%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014TEN761071791,41287408
2015TEN7410116693547815
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011LSUSEC181192102801
2012LSUSEC92073522,6091270012
2013LSUSEC101922963,0822280022

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

30%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1495 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
5,783 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.62 — strong athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+32.5) — getting better faster each year-0.390
289.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)