Player breakdown
Zach Wilson
BYU · 2021 Draft Class
6-2214 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
35%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NYJ | 13 | 13 | 213 | 383 | 2,334 | 9 | 11 | 185 | 4 | 13 |
| 2022 | NYJ | 9 | 9 | 132 | 242 | 1,688 | 6 | 7 | 102 | 1 | 7 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 12 | 11 | 221 | 368 | 2,271 | 8 | 7 | 211 | 0 | 8 |
| 2025 | MIA | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BYU | Big 12 | 5 | 102 | 164 | 1,261 | 8 | 3 | 198 | 2 | 10 |
| 2019 | BYU | Big 12 | 7 | 175 | 279 | 2,108 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 12 |
| 2020 | BYU | Big 12 | 11 | 247 | 336 | 3,692 | 33 | 3 | 254 | 10 | 43 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
35%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1215 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
7,061 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.265
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.368