Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Aaron Brown
Aaron Brown

Player breakdown

Aaron Brown

TCU · 2009 Draft Class

6th round, 192nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

6%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2009DET152713109841215
2010DET6175808450103
2011DET11001909
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005TCUBig 126116710511146856
2006TCUBig 1201407499334471,196
2007TCUBig 120106490224161651
2008TCUBig 1208544521098543

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

6%

ML model output

Context Prob

6%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
23 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)