Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones

Player breakdown

Aaron Jones

Texas-El Paso · 2017 Draft Class

5-9208 lbs5th round, 182nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

63%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017GNB128144849220470
2018GNB121337288262061934
2019GNB162361,084164947431,558
2020GNB142011,10494735521,459
2021GNB1517179945239161,190
2022GNB172131,12125939551,516
2023GNB111426562302331889
2024MIN172551,13855140821,546
2025MIN121325482281991747
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013UTEPConference USA31558114414825
2014UTEPConference USA72171,23311272841,517
2015UTEPConference USA03220919106315
2016UTEPConference USA112291,77317282332,006

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

63%

ML model output

Context Prob

63%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.56s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 87.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

4.20s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
9.64 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
68 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)