Predicting the Pros
Predictions/AJ Dillon
AJ Dillon

Player breakdown

AJ Dillon

Boston Col. · 2020 Draft Class

6-0247 lbs2nd round, 62nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2020GNB114624222210263
2021GNB1718780353431321,116
2022GNB171867707282060976
2023GNB151786132222230836
2025PHI712600321081
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2017Boston CollegeACC72681,43213001,432
2018Boston CollegeACC72271,108108411,149
2019Boston CollegeACC83181,68514131951,880

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

85%

ML model output

Context Prob

85%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,487 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.53s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 1.02 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381

Top Negative Factors

Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324
7.61 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
21 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)