Player breakdown
Alex Collins
Arkansas · 2016 Draft Class
5-10217 lbs5th round, 171st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
70%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | SEA | 11 | 31 | 125 | 1 | 11 | 84 | 0 | 209 |
| 2017 | BAL | 15 | 212 | 973 | 6 | 23 | 187 | 0 | 1,160 |
| 2018 | BAL | 10 | 114 | 411 | 7 | 15 | 105 | 1 | 516 |
| 2020 | SEA | 3 | 18 | 77 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 81 |
| 2021 | SEA | 11 | 108 | 411 | 2 | 9 | 87 | 0 | 498 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Arkansas | SEC | 4 | 190 | 1,026 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 1,089 |
| 2014 | Arkansas | SEC | 0 | 187 | 1,024 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 1,033 |
| 2015 | Arkansas | SEC | 0 | 248 | 1,392 | 17 | 13 | 95 | 1,487 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
70%
ML model output
Context Prob
70%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
4.59s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 84.2 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
33 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Top Negative Factors
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324
27 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
1203.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264