Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Alexander Mattison
Alexander Mattison

Player breakdown

Alexander Mattison

Boise St. · 2019 Draft Class

5-11221 lbs3rd round, 102nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~28
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

28%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019MIN13100462110820544
2020MIN13964342131251559
2021MIN161344913322281719
2022MIN1774283515911374
2023MIN161807000301923892
2024LVR141324204362941714
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2016Boise StateMountain West4593074449356
2017Boise StateMountain West92091,07412282841,358
2018Boise StateMountain West03021,41517271731,588

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

28%

ML model output

Context Prob

28%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.67s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 88.5 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236
34 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.29s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)