Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Alfred Morris
Alfred Morris

Player breakdown

Alfred Morris

Florida Atlantic · 2012 Draft Class

5-10219 lbs6th round, 173rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
Low1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

26%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2012WAS163351,61313117701,690
2013WAS162761,275797801,353
2014WAS162651,07481715501,229
2015WAS16202751110550806
2016DAL146924323110254
2017DAL1411554717450592
2018SFO1211142828730501
2019ARI11400004
2020NYG95523813191257
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2008Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic072300023
2009Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic72631,3921171141,506
2010Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic02279287847975
2011Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic02351,1869151391,325

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

26%

ML model output

Context Prob

26%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.63s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 87.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
31 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.19s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)