Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara

Player breakdown

Alvin Kamara

Tennessee · 2017 Draft Class

5-10214 lbs3rd round, 67th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

79%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017NOR1612072888182651,554
2018NOR15194883148170941,592
2019NOR1417179758153311,330
2020NOR15187932168375651,688
2021NOR1324089844743951,337
2022NOR1522389725749021,387
2023NOR1318069457546611,160
2024NOR1422895066854321,493
2025NOR111314711331860657
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015TennesseeSEC096645631272917
2016TennesseeSEC096565933346911

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

79%

ML model output

Context Prob

79%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.56s forty — slow speed+0.395
4.29 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360

Top Negative Factors

64 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.24 — variable output-0.174

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)