Player breakdown
Ashton Jeanty
Boise St. · 2025 Draft Class
5-9211 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~22
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2017NIL Contract Value: $1.6M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LVR | 17 | 266 | 975 | 5 | 55 | 346 | 5 | 1,321 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Boise State | Mountain West | 13 | 128 | 643 | 6 | 13 | 145 | 788 |
| 2023 | Boise State | Mountain West | 12 | 203 | 1,262 | 14 | 39 | 552 | 1,814 |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | 13 | 344 | 2,497 | 29 | 20 | 116 | 2,613 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
59%
ML model output
Context Prob
59%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
1,738 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227
Top Negative Factors
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
12.38 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.57 — average athletic ceiling-0.300