Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brian Leonard
Brian Leonard

Player breakdown

Brian Leonard

Rutgers · 2007 Draft Class

6-1226 lbs2nd round, 52nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

37%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008STL22700007
2009CIN1427840302170301
2010CIN119610201371198
2011CIN1317850222100295
2012CIN1533106011670173
2013TAM16471820291790361
2014NOR1000115015
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003RutgersBig Ten111717438464281,171
2004RutgersBig Ten61997327615181,250
2005RutgersBig Ten816369410494701,164
2006RutgersBig Ten382379536288667

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

37%

ML model output

Context Prob

37%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 108.3 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.52s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.96 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381

Top Negative Factors

4.22s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)