Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chase Brown
Chase Brown

Player breakdown

Chase Brown

Illinois · 2023 Draft Class

5-10209 lbs5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

71%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2023CIN12441790141561335
2024CIN1622999075436041,350
2025CIN172321,01966943751,456
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018Western MichiganMid-American0673370762399
2019IllinoisBig Ten031800018
2020IllinoisBig Ten01045403764604
2021IllinoisBig Ten41701,0055141421,147
2022IllinoisBig Ten03281,64310272401,883

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

71%

ML model output

Context Prob

71%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 108.5 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.43s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush td rate-0.411
9.01 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
48 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)