Player breakdown
Chase Brown
Illinois · 2023 Draft Class
5-10209 lbs5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
71%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CIN | 12 | 44 | 179 | 0 | 14 | 156 | 1 | 335 |
| 2024 | CIN | 16 | 229 | 990 | 7 | 54 | 360 | 4 | 1,350 |
| 2025 | CIN | 17 | 232 | 1,019 | 6 | 69 | 437 | 5 | 1,456 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Western Michigan | Mid-American | 0 | 67 | 337 | 0 | 7 | 62 | 399 |
| 2019 | Illinois | Big Ten | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2020 | Illinois | Big Ten | 0 | 104 | 540 | 3 | 7 | 64 | 604 |
| 2021 | Illinois | Big Ten | 4 | 170 | 1,005 | 5 | 14 | 142 | 1,147 |
| 2022 | Illinois | Big Ten | 0 | 328 | 1,643 | 10 | 27 | 240 | 1,883 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
71%
ML model output
Context Prob
71%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Conference-adjusted speed score: 108.5 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.43s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236
Top Negative Factors
Rb rush td rate-0.411
9.01 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
48 career receptions — limited volume-0.278