Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chris Carson
Chris Carson

Player breakdown

Chris Carson

Oklahoma St. · 2017 Draft Class

6-0218 lbs7th round, 249th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

69%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017SEA44920807591267
2018SEA142471,15192016301,314
2019SEA152781,23073726621,496
2020SEA121416815372874968
2021SEA45423236290261
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015Oklahoma StateBig 120121504413111615
2016Oklahoma StateBig 12671498813128626

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

69%

ML model output

Context Prob

69%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.58s forty — slow speed+0.395
2.87 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
Catch radius: 90.5 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

26 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.13 — variable output-0.174

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)