Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chris Johnson
Chris Johnson

Player breakdown

Chris Johnson

East Carolina · 2008 Draft Class

5-11197 lbs1st round, 24th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
EliteAll-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

91%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008TEN152511,22894326011,488
2009TEN163582,006145050322,509
2010TEN163161,364114424511,609
2011TEN162621,04745741801,465
2012TEN162761,24363623201,475
2013TEN162791,07764234541,422
2014NYJ161556631241511814
2015ARI1119681436580872
2016ARI42595100095
2017ARI44511405430157
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2004East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0134561532236797
2005East CarolinaAmerican Athletic01766846353561,040
2006East CarolinaAmerican Athletic078314420168482
2007East CarolinaAmerican Athletic02081,20016344961,696

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

88%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.24s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

8.61 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
121 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)