Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chris Perry
Chris Perry

Player breakdown

Chris Perry

Michigan · 2004 Draft Class

6-0224 lbs1st round, 26th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

83%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2004CIN2210333034
2005CIN14612790513282607
2006CIN610570942099
2008CIN13104269220710340
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003MichiganBig Ten133361,69218443742,066

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

77%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
2,066 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.56s forty — slow speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

9.22 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)