Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chris Thompson
Chris Thompson

Player breakdown

Chris Thompson

Florida St. · 2013 Draft Class

5-7192 lbs5th round, 154th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

30%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2014WAS23120627139
2015WAS13352160352402456
2016WAS16683563493492705
2017WAS10642942395104804
2018WAS10431780412681446
2019WAS11371380423780516
2020JAX87200201461166
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2009Florida StateACC0231202210130
2010Florida StateACC0108699517138837
2011Florida StateACC129831317100
2012Florida StateACC391687521248935

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

30%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.42s forty — average speed+0.395
4.87 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.295
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

2 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.280
43 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)