Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey

Player breakdown

Christian McCaffrey

Stanford · 2017 Draft Class

5-11202 lbs1st round, 8th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 1539NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017CAR1611743528065151,086
2018CAR162191,098710786761,965
2019CAR162871,387151161,00542,392
2020CAR3592255171491374
2021CAR7994421373431785
2022SFO1115974665246441,210
2023SFO162721,459146756472,023
2024SFO4502020151460348
2025SFO173111,2021010292472,126
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014StanfordACC035243016251494
2015StanfordACC03191,8478415402,387
2016StanfordACC02531,60313373101,913

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

79%

ML model output

Context Prob

79%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
1,598 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396

Top Negative Factors

4.22s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush td rate-0.411
11.82 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)