Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ciatrick Fason
Ciatrick Fason

Player breakdown

Ciatrick Fason

Florida · 2005 Draft Class

6-1207 lbs4th round, 112th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

79%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2005MIN133262400062
2006MIN5189913190118
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003FloridaSEC107555639139695
2004FloridaSEC92051,17310312261,399

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

79%

ML model output

Context Prob

79%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.58s forty — slow speed+0.395
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227
18 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

40 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Conference-adjusted speed score: 94.1 — speed measured against quality competition-0.173
Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling-0.169

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)