Predicting the Pros
Predictions/C.J. Spiller
C.J. Spiller

Player breakdown

C.J. Spiller

Clemson · 2010 Draft Class

5-11196 lbs1st round, 9th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2010BUF14742830241571440
2011BUF161075614392692830
2012BUF162071,24464345921,703
2013BUF1520293323318501,118
2014BUF9783000191251425
2015NOR13361120342392351
2016NYJ439017016
2017KAN12000000
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2006ClemsonACC012491410192101,124
2007ClemsonACC0137656232276932
2008ClemsonACC01096127304301,042
2009ClemsonACC02161,21212365031,715

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

92%

ML model output

Context Prob

92%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.37s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

8.75 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
117 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Conference-adjusted speed score: 96.7 — speed measured against quality competition-0.154

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)