Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Daniel Thomas
Daniel Thomas

Player breakdown

Daniel Thomas

Kansas St. · 2011 Draft Class

6-0230 lbs2nd round, 62nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
HighMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

71%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2011MIA13165581012721653
2012MIA12913254151560481
2013MIA15109406415632469
2014MIA12441682131210289
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2009Kansas StateBig 1202471,26511252571,522
2010Kansas StateBig 12102761,49516261631,658

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

71%

ML model output

Context Prob

71%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,590 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.62s forty — slow speed+0.395
27 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

7.21 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.305
51 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)