Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Darrell Henderson
Darrell Henderson

Player breakdown

Darrell Henderson

Memphis · 2019 Draft Class

5-8208 lbs3rd round, 70th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

90%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019LAR133914704370184
2020LAR151386245161591783
2021LAR121496885291763864
2022LAR10702833171020385
2023LAR4461122101030215
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2016MemphisAmerican Athletic078469520237706
2017MemphisAmerican Athletic01301,1549242261,380
2018MemphisAmerican Athletic02141,90922192952,204

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

90%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.49s forty — average speed+0.395
1,430 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.376

Top Negative Factors

10.60 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
63 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Conference-adjusted speed score: 25.6 — speed measured against quality competition-0.142

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)