Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Darren McFadden
Darren McFadden

Player breakdown

Darren McFadden

Arkansas · 2008 Draft Class

6-1211 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
EliteDoak Walker x2All-American x2All-Conference x21000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 6Heisman votes: 4043NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008OAK131134994292850784
2009OAK121043571212450602
2010OAK132231,15774750731,664
2011OAK71136144191541768
2012OAK122167072422581965
2013OAK101143795171080487
2014OAK161555342362120746
2015DAL162391,08934032801,417
2016DAL3248703170104
2017DAL11-20000-2
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005ArkansasSEC01761,1131114521,165
2006ArkansasSEC02651,55814111491,707
2007ArkansasSEC03041,72515211641,889

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

99%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

2 All-Conference selections — back-to-back conference dominance+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 120.0 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429

Top Negative Factors

8.95 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
46 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush share of scrimmage-0.182

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)