Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Darren Sproles
Darren Sproles

Player breakdown

Darren Sproles

Kansas St. · 2005 Draft Class

5-6187 lbs4th round, 130th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

73%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2005SDG158500310060
2007SDG1537164210310195
2008SDG16613301293425672
2009SDG16933433454974840
2010SDG16502670595202787
2011NOR168760328671071,313
2012NOR13482441756677911
2013NOR15532202716042824
2014PHI15573296403870716
2015PHI16833173553881705
2016PHI15944382524272865
2017PHI3156107730134
2018PHI6291201151602280
2019PHI617660624090
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003Kansas StateBig 12152961,94116232892,230
2004Kansas StateBig 1202441,31811322231,541

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

73%

ML model output

Context Prob

73%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,885 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.47s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 82.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

3.96s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness-0.665
11.93 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.83 — elite athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)