Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Darwin Thompson
Darwin Thompson

Player breakdown

Darwin Thompson

Utah St. · 2019 Draft Class

6th round, 214th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

28%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019KAN123712819430171
2020KAN14279717651162
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018Utah StateMountain West913295114223361,287

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

28%

ML model output

Context Prob

28%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227
16 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)