Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Kirtman
David Kirtman

Player breakdown

David Kirtman

USC · 2006 Draft Class

5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003USCBig Ten4524053054
2004USCBig Ten1741018146187
2005USCBig Ten2826119220246

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

5%

ML model output

Context Prob

5%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
3 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)