Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Montgomery
David Montgomery

Player breakdown

David Montgomery

Iowa St. · 2019 Draft Class

5-10222 lbs3rd round, 73rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

72%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019CHI1624288962518511,074
2020CHI152471,07085443821,508
2021CHI1322584974230101,150
2022CHI1620180153431611,117
2023DET142191,015131611701,132
2024DET14185775123634101,116
2025DET171587168241920908
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2016Iowa StateBig 122109563213129692
2017Iowa StateBig 1262341,09411352881,382
2018Iowa StateBig 1282311,09212181021,194

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

72%

ML model output

Context Prob

72%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.63s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 84.2 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
25 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324
66 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)