Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Williams
David Williams

Player breakdown

David Williams

Arkansas · 2018 Draft Class

5-9175 lbs7th round, 226th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~32
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

18%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018JAX6836000036
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014South CarolinaSEC2452562799355
2015South CarolinaSEC08629901193392
2016South CarolinaSEC2562393972311
2017ArkansasSEC5117656810171827

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

18%

ML model output

Context Prob

18%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
10 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)