Predicting the Pros
Predictions/DeAngelo Williams
DeAngelo Williams

Player breakdown

DeAngelo Williams

Memphis · 2006 Draft Class

5-9214 lbs1st round, 27th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

93%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2006CAR131215011333131814
2007CAR161447174231751892
2008CAR162731,515182212121,636
2009CAR132161,11772925201,369
2010CAR687361111610422
2011CAR161558367161350971
2012CAR161737375131872924
2013CAR1520184332633311,176
2014CAR66221905440263
2015PIT16200907114036701,274
2016PIT9983434181182461
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003MemphisAmerican Athletic24525021094344
2004MemphisAmerican Athletic02951,82821172062,034
2005MemphisAmerican Athletic02791,7261511801,806

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

90%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.45s forty — average speed+0.395
1,394 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.376

Top Negative Factors

9.50 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
38 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
697.3 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)