Predicting the Pros
Predictions/DeMarco Murray
DeMarco Murray

Player breakdown

DeMarco Murray

Oklahoma · 2011 Draft Class

6-0213 lbs3rd round, 71st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2011DAL1316489722618301,080
2012DAL101616634352510914
2013DAL142171,12195335011,471
2014DAL163921,845135741602,261
2015PHI1519370264432211,024
2016TEN162931,28795337731,664
2017TEN151846596392661925
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2007OklahomaSEC0127764131460824
2008OklahomaSEC01791,00214313951,397
2009OklahomaSEC61717058415221,227
2010OklahomaSEC02571,12114695951,716

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

70%

ML model output

Context Prob

70%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 116.8 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.37s forty — elite sub-4.4 speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.97 — elite athletic ceiling+0.381

Top Negative Factors

4.18s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
8.06 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)