Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry

Player breakdown

Derrick Henry

Alabama · 2016 Draft Class

6-3247 lbs2nd round, 45th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
EliteHeisman x1Doak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x21000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 5Heisman votes: 1832NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2016TEN151104905131370627
2017TEN161767445111361880
2018TEN162151,05912159901,158
2019TEN153031,540161820621,746
2020TEN163782,027171911402,141
2021TEN8219937101815401,091
2022TEN163491,538133339801,936
2023TEN172801,167122821401,381
2024BAL173251,921161919322,114
2025BAL173071,595161515001,745
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013AlabamaSEC228282200282
2014AlabamaSEC815989510379974
2015AlabamaSEC03391,9862310972,083

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

76%

ML model output

Context Prob

76%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

2 All-Conference selections — back-to-back conference dominance+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 116.3 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.54s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

4.38s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
8.43 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.339

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)