Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Derrius Guice
Derrius Guice

Player breakdown

Derrius Guice

LSU · 2018 Draft Class

5-10224 lbs2nd round, 59th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

83%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019WAS54224527791324
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2015LSUSEC0473973314411
2016LSUSEC01571,249146951,344
2017LSUSEC72161,15311151001,253

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

83%

ML model output

Context Prob

83%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Conference-adjusted speed score: 110.2 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.49s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 85.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
24 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
573.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)