Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Deuce Vaughn
Deuce Vaughn

Player breakdown

Deuce Vaughn

Kansas St. · 2023 Draft Class

5-5179 lbs6th round, 212th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~24
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

51%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2023DAL723400740080
2024DAL717700318088
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2020Kansas StateBig 1201236427254341,076
2021Kansas StateBig 12112141,25815474711,729
2022Kansas StateBig 1202711,4258423781,803

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

51%

ML model output

Context Prob

51%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,536 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
Catch radius: 82.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
38 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
10.07 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.51 — average athletic ceiling-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)