Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Devonta Freeman
Devonta Freeman

Player breakdown

Devonta Freeman

Florida St. · 2014 Draft Class

5-8206 lbs4th round, 103rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~34
Medium1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

50%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2014ATL16652481302251473
2015ATL152651,056117357831,634
2016ATL162271,079115446221,541
2017ATL1419686573631711,182
2018ATL214680523091
2019ATL1418465625941041,066
2020NYG55417217580230
2021BAL161335765341901766
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2011Florida StateACC610753181399630
2012Florida StateACC511166081086746
2013Florida StateACC1116294313192571,200

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

50%

ML model output

Context Prob

50%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.58s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 83.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
30 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.26s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
42 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.247

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)