Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Donald Brown
Donald Brown

Player breakdown

Donald Brown

Connecticut · 2009 Draft Class

5-10210 lbs1st round, 27th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

81%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2009IND11782813111690450
2010IND131294972202050702
2011IND16134645516860731
2012IND1010841719930510
2013IND161025376272142751
2014SDG13852230292110434
2015SDG105922918880317
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2006ConnecticutFBS Independents016189671366962
2007ConnecticutFBS Independents715774981392841
2008ConnecticutFBS Independents103381,82217211251,947

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

63%

ML model output

Context Prob

63%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 90.8 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.10s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
9.27 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)