Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Donnel Pumphrey
Donnel Pumphrey

Player breakdown

Donnel Pumphrey

San Diego St. · 2017 Draft Class

5-8176 lbs4th round, 132nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
EliteMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

87%

SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013San Diego StateMountain West0123750822234984
2014San Diego StateMountain West102551,75519191181,873
2015San Diego StateMountain West02841,55416273971,951
2016San Diego StateMountain West03302,01816262052,223

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

87%

ML model output

Context Prob

87%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,757 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.396
4.48s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 84.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

12.63 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
Physical upside: 0.81 — elite athletic ceiling-0.300
94 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)