Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Doug Martin
Doug Martin

Player breakdown

Doug Martin

Boise St. · 2012 Draft Class

5-9223 lbs1st round, 31st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

80%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2012TAM163191,454114947211,926
2013TAM6127456112660522
2014TAM11134494213640558
2015TAM162881,40263327111,673
2016TAM81444213141340555
2017TAM1113840639840490
2018OAK161727234181160839
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2008Boise StateMountain West0241070253160
2009Boise StateMountain West012976515868833
2010Boise StateMountain West71841,11311273231,436
2011Boise StateMountain West02321,14815252291,377

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

77%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
4.46s forty — average speed+0.395
Physical upside: 0.96 — elite athletic ceiling+0.359

Top Negative Factors

4.16s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
2 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
62 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)