Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Duke Johnson
Duke Johnson

Player breakdown

Duke Johnson

Miami (FL) · 2015 Draft Class

5-9207 lbs3rd round, 77th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

90%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2015CLE161043790615342913
2016CLE16733581535140872
2017CLE168234847469331,041
2018CLE16402010474293630
2019HOU16834102444103820
2020HOU11772351282491484
2021MIA57133034410371
2022BUF12400004
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2012MiamiACC013994710272211,168
2013MiamiACC01459206477997
2014MiamiACC102181,52010333701,890

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

90%

ML model output

Context Prob

90%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.54s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 85.8 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

9.13 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.360
64 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
486.6 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)