Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Elijah McGuire
Elijah McGuire

Player breakdown

Elijah McGuire

Louisiana · 2017 Draft Class

5-10214 lbs6th round, 188th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
HighMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

63%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017NYJ16883151171771492
2018NYJ8922763191931469
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013LouisianaSun Belt0928187152901,108
2014LouisianaSun Belt01501,16514404141,579
2015LouisianaSun Belt02101,05813332931,351
2016LouisianaSun Belt02151,0287282311,259

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

63%

ML model output

Context Prob

63%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.53s forty — average speed+0.395
Catch radius: 88.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.56s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
7.38 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
116 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)