Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Evan Royster
Evan Royster

Player breakdown

Evan Royster

Penn St. · 2011 Draft Class

6-0212 lbs6th round, 177th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

38%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2011WAS65632809680396
2012WAS1623882151090197
2013WAS102001303
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2007Penn StateBig Ten4734484318466
2008Penn StateBig Ten81851,20212171551,357
2009Penn StateBig Ten02051,1696161871,356
2010Penn StateBig Ten61889166211511,067

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

38%

ML model output

Context Prob

38%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.65s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 89.0 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236
31 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.18s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
57 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)