Player breakdown
Ezekiel Elliott
Ohio St. · 2016 Draft Class
6-0225 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DAL | 15 | 322 | 1,631 | 15 | 32 | 363 | 1 | 1,994 |
| 2017 | DAL | 10 | 242 | 983 | 7 | 26 | 269 | 2 | 1,252 |
| 2018 | DAL | 15 | 304 | 1,434 | 6 | 77 | 567 | 3 | 2,001 |
| 2019 | DAL | 16 | 301 | 1,357 | 12 | 54 | 420 | 2 | 1,777 |
| 2020 | DAL | 15 | 244 | 979 | 6 | 52 | 338 | 2 | 1,317 |
| 2021 | DAL | 17 | 237 | 1,002 | 10 | 47 | 287 | 2 | 1,289 |
| 2022 | DAL | 15 | 231 | 876 | 12 | 17 | 92 | 0 | 968 |
| 2023 | NWE | 17 | 184 | 642 | 3 | 51 | 313 | 2 | 955 |
| 2024 | DAL | 15 | 74 | 226 | 3 | 12 | 69 | 0 | 295 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 2 | 30 | 262 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 285 |
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0 | 217 | 1,402 | 12 | 26 | 208 | 1,610 |
| 2015 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0 | 262 | 1,672 | 19 | 26 | 176 | 1,848 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
96%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 112.7 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.47s forty — average speed+0.395
Top Negative Factors
3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
8.21 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318
55 career receptions — limited volume-0.278