Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott

Player breakdown

Ezekiel Elliott

Ohio St. · 2016 Draft Class

6-0225 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2016DAL153221,631153236311,994
2017DAL1024298372626921,252
2018DAL153041,43467756732,001
2019DAL163011,357125442021,777
2020DAL1524497965233821,317
2021DAL172371,002104728721,289
2022DAL152318761217920968
2023NWE171846423513132955
2024DAL1574226312690295
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013Ohio StateBig Ten2302622323285
2014Ohio StateBig Ten02171,40212262081,610
2015Ohio StateBig Ten02621,67219261761,848

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

96%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 112.7 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.47s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
8.21 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.318
55 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)