Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Felix Jones
Felix Jones

Player breakdown

Felix Jones

Arkansas · 2008 Draft Class

5-10207 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2008DAL63026632100276
2009DAL141166853191190804
2010DAL1618580014845011,250
2011DAL121275751332210796
2012DAL161114023252622664
2013PIT164818409630247
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2005ArkansasSEC09962638100726
2006ArkansasSEC01401,0184111051,123
2007ArkansasSEC01231,11711131111,228

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

92%

ML model output

Context Prob

92%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 106.5 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429

Top Negative Factors

4.19s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
32 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush share of scrimmage-0.162

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)