Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Gary Brightwell
Gary Brightwell

Player breakdown

Gary Brightwell

Arizona · 2021 Draft Class

5-10218 lbs6th round, 196th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2021NYG1314016010
2022NYG173114115390180
2023NYG79190547066
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018ArizonaBig 12091525329534
2019ArizonaBig 120663905459449
2020ArizonaBig 1218839011353443

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.62s forty — slow speed+0.395
2.45 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
Catch radius: 87.2 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.48s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush td rate-0.411
2 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)