Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ito Smith
Ito Smith

Player breakdown

Ito Smith

Southern Miss · 2018 Draft Class

4th round, 126th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

43%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2018ATL14903154271520467
2019ATL722106111870193
2020ATL1463268117750343
2021DAL11410004
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2014Southern MississippiSun Belt01365362876612
2015Southern MississippiSun Belt01551,0888444931,581
2016Southern MississippiSun Belt112391,32115424531,774
2017Southern MississippiSun Belt02321,32113363701,691

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

43%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,414 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.376
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
44 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)