Player breakdown
Ito Smith
Southern Miss · 2018 Draft Class
4th round, 126th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
43%
| Year | Team | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ATL | 14 | 90 | 315 | 4 | 27 | 152 | 0 | 467 |
| 2019 | ATL | 7 | 22 | 106 | 1 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 193 |
| 2020 | ATL | 14 | 63 | 268 | 1 | 17 | 75 | 0 | 343 |
| 2021 | DAL | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Scrim Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 0 | 136 | 536 | 2 | 8 | 76 | 612 |
| 2015 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 0 | 155 | 1,088 | 8 | 44 | 493 | 1,581 |
| 2016 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 11 | 239 | 1,321 | 15 | 42 | 453 | 1,774 |
| 2017 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 0 | 232 | 1,321 | 13 | 36 | 370 | 1,691 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
43%
ML model output
Context Prob
43%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.268
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,414 avg yards/season — elite per-season output+0.376
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
44 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Top Negative Factors
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.300
BMI 0.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR-0.284