Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Conner
James Conner

Player breakdown

James Conner

Pittsburgh · 2017 Draft Class

6-1233 lbs3rd round, 105th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
High1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

69%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2017PIT14321440000144
2018PIT13215973125549711,470
2019PIT101164644342513715
2020PIT131697216352150936
2021ARI15202752153737531,127
2022ARI1318378274630011,082
2023ARI132081,04072716521,205
2024ARI162361,09484741411,508
2025ARI3329518381133
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2013PittsburghACC51205707333603
2014PittsburghACC102771,675245701,745
2015PittsburghACC087721784
2016PittsburghACC112081,06016202991,359

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

69%

ML model output

Context Prob

69%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.65s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 87.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
53 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
7.49 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
29 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)