Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Starks
James Starks

Player breakdown

James Starks

Buffalo · 2010 Draft Class

6th round, 193rd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~40
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

19%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2010GNB32910102150116
2011GNB131335781292160794
2012GNB67125514310286
2013GNB1389493310891582
2014GNB16853332181400473
2015GNB161486012433923993
2016GNB9631450191342279
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2006BuffaloMid-American0175704634226930
2007BuffaloMid-American82511,10312413111,414
2008BuffaloMid-American82591,30815413401,648

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

19%

ML model output

Context Prob

19%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
36 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337
Rb scrimmage yards per touch-0.324

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)