Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jason Snelling
Jason Snelling

Player breakdown

Jason Snelling

Virginia · 2007 Draft Class

7th round, 244th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

2%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2007ATL71343100043
2008ATL16156208890151
2009ATL141426134302591872
2010ATL14873242443033627
2011ATL15441510261791330
2012ATL1618630312031266
2013ATL14441641292163380
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2004VirginiaACC1211431329172
2005VirginiaACC158325219140465
2006VirginiaACC61837727292821,054

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

2%

ML model output

Context Prob

2%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
10 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188
Short shuttle not recorded at combine+0.175

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411
3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)